Farm Futures - Morning Call by Bryce Knorr


Morning Call by Bryce Knorr

September 3, 2010
Corn: Steady to down 2
Soybeans: Up 5 to 10
Wheat: Up
5 to 10

Futures try to hold on to yesterday gains today, with influence from outside markets likely on the heels of this morning's monthly jobs report.

Corn could see a steady to lower open, after failing to break through chart resistance just above the market overnight.

Volume continues to wind down ahead of the holiday weekend, though some 211,000 contracts did turn over yesterday according to the preliminary report from the CBOT, with a little new buying noted on an increase in open interest of 2,700 lots. Basis firmed along the Illinois River, despite an increase in deliveries; 877 contracts were put out today.

Export Sales stayed very strong in the latest week, totaling 67.5 million bushels as the 2009 marketing year came to an end. USDA Thursday also announced the sale of 4.725 million bushels of corn and 3.75 million bushels of soybeans to Egypt under its daily reporting system for large purchases, while South Korea is tending today for another 4.3 million bushels.

Showers are finally winding down in the Midwest, after heavy rains in the Great Lakes and western Corn Belt. Coverage into the middle of next week is expected to be light, with attention focused on Hurricane Earl as it moves up the East Coast. Temperatures are much cooler this morning, but will slow rise into next week.

Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts out yesterday continue to call for above normal temperatures and rainfall, with dryness limited to the Ohio River Valley into the South. Overnight maps are showing a little disagreement this morning, with European models having somewhat more riding over the eastern Midwest. The latest two-week American model run suggests a wet period that could slow early harvesting activities.

China's corn-growing area picked up showers over the last 24 hours, with storms returning next week.

Futures on the Dalian exchange ticked higher to end the week, but remain in a downtrend from mid-August highs, despite reports suggesting explosive long-term growth in feed production and imports.

The back-and-forth flow of economic numbers continued on Thursday. Factory orders rose a little in July, though less than expected, but the pending home sales index gained 5.2%, providing some cheer to that beleaguered sector of the economy. Weekly unemployment claims dropped only slightly on Thursday, ahead of today's employment report for August, which could show the loss of another 80,000 to 100,000 jobs last month.

The dollar is a little weaker this morning, but risk aversion appears to be in the air ahead of the employment report, adding a little pressure to gold and crude oil. World stock markets moved mostly higher overnight, on the heels of yesterday's higher close on Wall Street.

Soybeans look ready for a stronger open today, after November futures fought off a test of chart support and $10 yesterday and reversed to close higher. However, beans remain the weak link in the market now, with traders worrying about an increase in production out of USDA next week in the monthly supply and demand report.

Weekly export sales out Thursday came in at 22.6 million bushels, below trade guesses. New crop sales remained at a record pace as the 2010 marketing year kicked off this week, with China and Thailand leading the list of buyers.

Volume in soybeans remains lackluster, dropping below 80,000 contracts yesterday, with short covering noted on the reversal that chopped 5,260 off open interest. Bean oil deliveries continue to wind down, with 830 lots put out today. There again were no deliveries against September beans or meal.

Palm oil gained around 1% in Malaysia today, with soybean oil moving similarly higher in China, where whole soybeans also gained on the session.

Wheat should see follow-through buying on the open this morning, as the market tries to test the top of its recent trading range. While a breakout today may be asking too much ahead of a holiday, chart traders are bracing for the market's month-long consolidation to end sooner, rather than later.

Old crop wheat surged higher yesterday on news Russia would extend its export ban until the 2011 harvest is complete, but new crop futures reversed to close lower on the session. Strong weekly exports of 37.6 million bushels also helped buoy old crop, with buyers starting to take bigger loads as nervousness about supplies takes hold.

Asian buyers also were reportedly stepping up their purchases of Australian and U.S. wheat this week. Lebanon in the market for 918,750 bushels, maybe because earlier deals with the U.S. and optional origins fell through. Futures on milling quality wheat moved cautiously higher in early European trading, extending this week's gains.

Volume in Chicago wheat barely topped 66,000 contracts yesterday, with open interest mostly flat. On the session. Deliveries against Chicago wheat remain elevated at 3,138 contracts, though bids did pick up a little in Toledo yesterday. Minneapolis saw 15 contracts redelivered today, with 471 put out again in Kansas City yesterday.

The Prairies in Canada are dry today, but more storms should move in off the coast into next week, further delaying crop development and raising fears about damage from early frost. Russia appears mostly dry this morning, though storms are moving toward the Black Sea area that could cause some flooding in the Ukraine as farmers try to seed winter wheat.

In the southern hemisphere, showers are moving into southeast Australia, with storms moving into the rest of the east into next week. Argentina is also seeing rains this morning. Argentina's main grain exchange said dry weather was affecting 38% of the crop, estimating production up to 25% less than USDA's current forecast. Next week should see fewer chances for showers.


Weekly Export Sales (million bushels)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AS OF WEEK ENDING

8/26/10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual

Last Week

Trade Est.

USDA F'cast

Export Ship-ments

USDA F'cast

% of USDA Commit.

Ave.

% of USDA Ship-ments

Ave.

Wheat

       37.6

    39.6

    31.2

     17.5

37.7

25.1

36%

38%

19%

22%

Corn

       67.5

    68.3

    45.3

 NA

45.0

 NA

105%

103%

93%

96%

Soybeans

       22.6

    36.4

    29.4

 NA

8.6

 NA

103%

103%

98%

101%

Source: USDA, Reuters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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