Futures look ready for a cautious open this morning, following mixed results on Wednesday. Nervous outside markets and the approach of a holiday weekend could limit volume and the desire to take risk.
Corn could open steady to a little weaker this morning, on the heels of very choppy trade overnight.
December futures yesterday rallied to its highest level since January, fueled by ideas yields are lower than official forecasts despite mostly steady crop ratings in August.
Volume fell on Wednesday, but still reached almost 250,000 contracts, with open interest posting modest gains on the rally according to the preliminary report from the CBOT. Deliveries against September continue to slowly wind down, with 388 contracts put out today.
Export Sales as expected to top 45 million bushels this week, down from last week's big total but still quite respectable. South Korea filled only a third of a tender for 6.5 million bushels of U.S. corn Wednesday, as some buyers are turning resistant to higher prices.
A second front is moving out of the northwest Corn Belt today, with the first system of the week still bringing rain to the eastern Midwest. Coverage into next week should be lightest in eastern portion of the Ohio River Valley, with Hurricane Earl bringing heavy rains and surf up the East Coast this weekend.
Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts out yesterday continue to show temperatures warming above normal, with a rain pattern similar to this week's. Overnight maps agreed on ridging focused over the central and eastern Midwest, with a trough over the West cooling parts of the Plains. The latest two-week American model run shows an active storm pattern to the north, with the Southeast remaining dry.
China's corn-growing area continues to see some showers this week, with a heavier pattern emerging next week. Futures on the Dalian exchange eased again today, closing near one-month lows.
Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining more than 2.5% on the day. While data on Construction Spending, private sector job losses and auto sales was downbeat, the market was cheered by an uptick in manufacturing. Weekly unemployment claims are expected to show only a small drop today, ahead of Friday's big employment report for August, which should show the economy shedding 80,000 more jobs last month. Other numbers out today include factory orders and the pending home sales index.
Stocks rallied in Asia today to catch up to New York, but share prices couldn't hold the trend in Europe, with the softer tone expected to weigh on Wall Street today.
The dollar is weaker today, but that's not encouraging commodities much. Crude oil is a little softer, giving back some of yesterday's two-buck gains. Prices rallied on the stock market move, despite a weekly Petroleum Inventory that showed supplies up some 3.4 million barrels.
Soybeans could see a little light buying on the open this morning, as November futures continue to struggle under ideas yields could be bigger than forecast. The new nearby is testing its latest support line again today, with a close over $10.10 needed.
Export sales are expected to approach 30 million bushels today, led by heavy new crop purchases out of China.
Soybean volume remains subdued, with just over 90,000 contracts trading yesterday amid flat pen interest. There was again nothing put out against Setpember beans or meal, with soybean oil deliveries slowly dropping.
Palm oil posted modest gains in Malaysia today, with worries over exports weighing on prices. Soybean oil in China moved higher, however, though whole soybeans were slightly weaker.
Wheat could benefit from follow-through buying this morning, after futures resisted attempts at taking profits on yesterday's big gains. Futures rallied after Egypt bought 8.3 million bushels of U.S. hard red winter wheat at its latest snap tender, though all three exchanges remain range-bound.
Export sales could also dominate the news today. Japan filled its entire 5.1 million bushel weekly tender from the U.S., as expected, and weekly totals are expected to be robust today, coming in around 31 million bushels.
Volume in Chicago eased on Wednesday, with barely 80,000 contracts trading on the rally and a modest drop in open interest suggesting short covering more than aggressive new buying. Deliveries in Chicago remain heavy at 3,467 lots, with basis mostly steady in Toledo. Only 23 contracts were redelivered today in Minneapolis, while all 471 lots were redelivered in Kansas City yesterday.
The Prairies in Canada are seeing showers wind down this morning, through storms could return by next week. Russia continues to see rains, while Germany is dry after heavy recent showers. Futures on milling quality wheat rose more than 1% in earlier European trading today.
In the southern hemisphere, showers are moving across South Australia this morning, with storms moving through eastern areas through the weekend. Argentina again saw rains mostly in northern areas, though chances for showers could spread to other areas by the weekend. Private estimates there put 70% of the crop in good shape, after an at times trying growing season so far.